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Cuba's tourist economy in trouble
Economically crucial visits by foreign tourists are free-falling, with flight costs, infrastructure issues and the exchange rate all playing a role.

BY WILFREDO CANCIO ISLA
El Nuevo Herald
Cuba's tourism industry, the island's main economic engine for the past 15 years, is in a steep fall amid a mix of factors that range from rising air ticket prices to changes in tour ownerships and crumbling tourist facilities.

The first alarm rang late last year, when Ministry of Tourism (MinTur) figures showed 2.2 million people had visited the island in 2006, down from 2.3 million in 2005.

The decline has accelerated so far this year. January and February indicators show a combined drop of 7 percent compared to the same months in 2006, according to the most recent MinTur figures, with February visitation falling 13 percent.

Spanish tourists, historically the island's third-largest group, dropped by 45 percent over both months.

Cuba's tourism industry has been generating more than $2 billion per year in recent years, and provides direct and indirect employment to about 300,000 people.

Cuban authorities explaining the drop have cited a rise in air fares, due to the cost of fuel, currency exchange rate shifts and the scares of the notoriously violent 2005 hurricane season. Also mentioned are the Bush administration tightening of restrictions on Cuban-American trips to the island, which according to Cuban news media reports dropped from 100,000 in 2004 to about 30,000 a year since.

On the plunge in Spanish tourism, MinTur officials focused blame on the suspension of three weekly flights by the Iberojet charter airline and the sale of the cruise line Pullmantur to Miami-based Royal Caribbean Cruises. A Pullmantur ship used to sail every week from Havana after picking up tourists who had flown in from Madrid, but the company was forced to end its Cuba stops under the new owners because of the U.S. trade embargo.

LEFT UNSAID

But internal MinTur documents obtained by El Nuevo Herald, independent experts and tourism-sector workers on the island show there are other serious problems not mentioned by MinTur.

Most of Cuba's tourism facilities were built in the 1990s and have received little maintenance since then, said a MinTur official who asked for anonymity out of fear of government punishment.

''The structure created for years in the tourism industry is crumbling piecemeal,'' the employee said. ``Tourism in Cuba is headed for chaos and it will take years to revert the present situation.''

The MinTur documents also point to the inability of the Tourism Construction Enterprise (Emprestur) to repair hotels because of the lack of materials.

The employee said there's also widespread dissatisfaction with the way Tourism Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz and leading managers are running things. Marrero, former president of the Gaviota Group, run by the Cuban armed forces, and a trusted aide to Cuban interim leader and Defense Minister Raúl Castro, was appointed to the post in early 2004 after the removal of Ibrahim Ferradaz amid reports of a corruption scandal.

''What's happening in tourism is a reflection of a behavior that has spread nationwide,'' said dissident economist Oscar Espinosa Chepe on the phone from Havana. ``People are disgusted with the economic situation at home, workers don't take pride in their work and inertia corrupts the entire organization.''

PRICEY PESO

Also affecting tourism was the Cuban government's decision in late 2004 to effectively increase the value of its currency by 20 percent, making foreigners' hotel stays and meals in Cuba that more expensive.

``It was logical that a devalued dollar would cause a drop in tourism from Latin America and Canada, because the visitors from those countries buy very cheap packages, said Carmelo Mesa Lago, professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh and a long-time Cuban economy watcher.

With 44,000 hotel rooms, Cuba had an occupancy rate of 63.5 percent in 2004 and only 55.7 percent in 2005, according to the United Nation's Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. The average daily expenditure per visitor dropped from $175 in 2003 to $97 in 2005.

MinTur has not released occupancy statistics for 2006, but the MinTur official estimated it at 50 percent.

Trying to reverse the trend, MinTur announced a strategic plan for 2007 that involves support for investments, construction of new facilities and repairs of existing hotels. The plan also envisions improved highways and road signs, and guarantees of electricity and water for the tourism industry.

Marrero has announced a ''total change in the philosophy of promotion and advertising for the island,'' and in January unveiled a campaign named ''Viva Cuba,'' designed to present a new image of the country, at the International Tourism Fair in Madrid.
I'll bet it will be right back to 2004 levels in January, February and March because of the increase in Canadians who have decided that Mexico is too dangerous after several violent incidents against Canadians including murders. According to a travel agent I know, Mexico was cut in half in January and the slack was picked up by the other warm destinations like Jamaica (like Jamaica is safe????) , Dominican Republic, Cuba and Florida.
Looks like the heat has died down for Mexico right now but if more violence is reported again, the tourism will crash and burn from Canada, especially from first time travellers with young families.
Unfortunately, Fidel (and Raúl) have become too greedy.
With the higher exchange rate of the Chavito, and compounded with escalating prices of retail goods, Cuba is no longer a budget destination. They have learned to gouge all the Yumas like any other high end destination.

Problem is, Cuba is a long way from being a high end destination.
all they have to do is loosen up on the chicas and they'll be back in droves.
Even their rates have gone up !
rainbow Wrote:I'll bet it will be right back to 2004 levels in January, February and March because of the increase in Canadians who have decided that Mexico is too dangerous after several violent incidents against Canadians including murders.  

Thats because Mexicans react differently that Cubans to Cheap Tourists. In Cuba, they just piss in your coffee while Mexicans take a more serious approach.

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Please Please...yes...Cuba is Very Very safe. God knows we don't need any more Canadians here in Florida.

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Trust me Pepin.... after the way my brother was treated at the American boarder.... you don't have to worry about anybody in my family returning. Cheeky_smiley_022
rainbow Wrote:Trust me Pepin.... after the way my brother was treated at the American boarder.... you don't have to worry about anybody in my family returning. Cheeky_smiley_022

Remember, its always better to be pissed off, then pissed on.
Rainbow, you will have to pardon me, i am just being very nosy, (just the way i am), but, just what did little brother do this time?
Pepin Gatiesa Wrote:Please Please...yes...Cuba is Very Very safe. God knows we don't need any more Canadians here in Florida.
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I'm sure you wouldn't mind one more Canadian (moi) coming for a visit. Icon_cool
Good thing I don't drink coffee.

I don't think however, that a downturn = "trouble". Just yet anyway. Too bad about the cruise ship - that has to be a confirmed kill for the embargo - but the whole industry is much broader based on fundamental issues. Cheap Canadians wanting sun and sand and snotty Euros who want to think they are sticking it to the USA. And chicas.
Great post Ochoa.

I was wondering when the high priced convertible peso would begin to bite.

It ALL boils down to money. Cuba has priced itself out of the market by making the convertible peso too expensive. It was an EXTREMELY lucrative thing to do in 2004, just take an extra 20% of every tourist dollar that comes in, by the stroke of a central bank pen. It won't stop extrajeros with cuban spouses, but it will stop tourists who can buy the same expereince 20% cheaper in the Domincan Republican with only a fraction of the complications if you do decide to follow a romantic interlude.

In the meantime, this money got SPENT on higher wages and pensions, and NOW, the income is dropping. And OF COURSE, there has been no capital spending in sugar mills, because in the short term, it saves you money, in the long term, it destroys your ability to earn income and service debt.

Communism101.

Fidel likes power. Fidel has power. What more is there to discuss?
Mountain Man Wrote:Great post Ochoa.

I was wondering when the high priced convertible peso would begin to bite.

It ALL boils down to money. Cuba has priced itself out of the market by making the convertible peso too expensive. It was an EXTREMELY lucrative thing to do in 2004, just take an extra 20% of every tourist dollar that comes in, by the stroke of a central bank pen. It won't stop extrajeros with cuban spouses, but it will stop tourists who can buy the same expereince 20% cheaper in the Domincan Republican with only a fraction of the complications if you do decide to follow a romantic interlude.

In the meantime, this money got SPENT on higher wages and pensions, and NOW, the income is dropping. And OF COURSE, there has been no capital spending in sugar mills, because in the short term, it saves you money, in the long term, it destroys your ability to earn income and service debt.

Communism101.

Fidel likes power. Fidel has power. What more is there to discuss?
Canada and Mexico also have bad winter tourist numbers - B.C. holding own due to good sking !!!
Yanet Wrote:
Pepin Gatiesa Wrote:
I'm sure you wouldn't mind one more Canadian (moi) coming for a visit.  Icon_cool

Any time Yan. I think you know that.

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